KeyCorp raises 2026 revenue guidance as part of Barclays presentation
The regional bank updated its full-year financial outlook, projecting higher revenue and noninterest income growth.
KeyCorp (KEY) raised parts of its full-year 2026 financial outlook in a presentation released Monday for the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference.
Chief Financial Officer Clark Khayat shared the updated targets in slides filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The bank now expects full-year 2026 revenue on an operating basis to rise approximately 8% compared to the 2025 baseline of $7,513 million, up from a previous projection of 7% to 8%. Noninterest income is now expected to grow 4% to 5% from the $2,842 million baseline, compared to a prior outlook of 3% to 4% growth.
Key takeaways
- Full-year 2026 revenue growth is now projected at approximately 8%.
- Noninterest income growth target raised to 4% to 5% from 3% to 4%.
- Adjusted noninterest income growth updated to 6% to 7% from 5% to 6%.
- Net interest income is expected to increase 9% to 11% over the 2025 baseline of $4,671 million.
Updated financial outlook and long-term targets
The company also adjusted its guidance for adjusted noninterest income, raising that expectation to 6% to 7% growth from a prior range of 5% to 6%, measured against a 2025 baseline of $2,495 million. Adjusted noninterest expense for 2026 is still expected to rise by approximately 4% over the 2025 baseline of $4,729 million.
Additional full-year metrics include average loan growth of 4% to 5% over the 2025 baseline of $105.7 billion, with average commercial loans expected to climb 8% to 10% from the $74.5 billion baseline. Net charge-offs to average loans are projected at 40 to 45 basis points.
Margins, taxes, and longer-term goals
KeyCorp outlined several operating expectations for the remainder of the year and future periods. The net interest margin fourth-quarter exit rate is projected between 3.00% and 3.05%, with average earning assets growing $1 billion to $2 billion from the second quarter of 2026.
The bank expects a GAAP tax rate of approximately 22% and a tax-equivalent effective rate of approximately 23%. For returns and capital, the company projected a return on tangible common equity between 16% and 19% for 2026, alongside longer-term targets including a 9.5% to 10% return on tangible common equity and a marked common equity tier 1 ratio of 3.25% plus or 15% plus by the fourth quarter of 2027.
Why it matters
Guidance updates outside of regular earnings reports give investors a direct look at how executive leadership views operating momentum mid-quarter. By raising revenue and noninterest income expectations, KeyCorp signaled stronger fee income generation and asset performance than previously anticipated for the year.
By the numbers
| Metric | Value | Source | |---|---|---|> | FY2026 Revenue Growth | up ~8% (from 7 - 8%) | 2026 Outlook | | FY2026 Noninterest Income Growth | up 4 - 5% (from 3 - 4%) | 2026 Outlook | | FY2026 Adjusted Noninterest Income Growth | up 6 - 7% (from 5 - 6%) | 2026 Outlook | | FY2026 Net Interest Income Growth | up 9 - 11% | 2026 Outlook | | FY2026 Adjusted Noninterest Expense Growth | up ~4% | 2026 Outlook | | FY2026 Average Loan Growth | up 4 - 5% | 2026 Outlook | | FY2026 Average Commercial Loan Growth | up 8 - 10% | 2026 Outlook | | Net Interest Margin 4Q Exit Rate | 3.00 - 3.05% | 2026 Outlook |
The filing did not include specific quarterly earnings per share estimates or details regarding potential macroeconomic variables that could alter the updated projections during the remainder of the fiscal year.