MDU Resources misses Q3 profit estimates, reaffirms 2026 forecast

MDU Resources (MDU) reported adjusted third-quarter EPS of 8 cents, missing the 10-cent consensus. Revenue of $347.8 million was in line with the $345.97 million consensus. The company serves more than 1.2 million customers across the Pacific Northwest and Midwest and reaffirmed its 2026 EPS forecast.

Shares were little changed at 10:17 a.m. ET, from a $19.82 close.

Here's how the company did:

• Adjusted EPS: 8 cents vs. 9 cents a year earlier, against the 10 cents consensus estimate
• GAAP diluted EPS: 7 cents vs. 9 cents a year earlier
• Revenue: $347.8 million vs. $315.1 million a year earlier
• Net income: $14.0 million vs. $18.4 million a year earlier

The gap between GAAP and adjusted results came from a loss tied to discontinuing development of the Knott Landfill renewable natural gas project and Bakken East Pipeline advisory costs that were expensed rather than capitalized.

For the first nine months, adjusted EPS was 57 cents, compared with 56 cents a year earlier. Nine-month revenue was $1,329.0 million, against $1,341.1 million.

Segment results

The electric utility earned $26.5 million, up 23.6% from $21.5 million a year earlier. New rates, Badger Wind Farm and higher retail sales volumes drove the gain. Retail electric sales rose 9.3%, and sales to data center customers rose 18.4%.

In North Dakota, the electric general rate case filed June 30, 2026 requested an annual revenue increase of $34.5 million. Interim rates of an annual $26.3 million increase, subject to refund, took effect Sept. 1, 2026, while the case remains pending.

The natural gas distribution segment posted a seasonal loss of $20.7 million, wider than the $18.2 million loss a year earlier. Higher operation and maintenance expense drove the result, including a $2.1 million net-of-tax loss tied to the Knott Landfill project. New rates in Idaho and Washington and retail volumes up 7.1% partly offset those costs.

The pipeline segment earned $13.1 million, down from $16.8 million, as higher operation and maintenance expense and Bakken East advisory costs weighed. Short-term transportation contracts and higher demand revenue from growth projects partly offset the decline.

Other reported a net loss of $4.9 million, compared with $1.7 million a year earlier, mainly on higher claims experience at the captive insurer and higher income tax expense.

Bakken East Pipeline

The board made a positive final investment decision on the Bakken East Pipeline on Sept. 30, 2026. The estimated capital investment range has narrowed to $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion, from $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion.

The roughly 350-mile pipeline will run from the Bakken region in western North Dakota to near Fargo in eastern North Dakota, with an initial capacity of 1.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. The project is subject to regulatory approval.

WBI Energy is evaluating financing structures, including possible participation by financial or strategic investors, and expects to retain majority ownership and operational control.

Construction is expected during the 2028-2030 construction seasons. The first phase, from the Bakken to central North Dakota, is expected to be completed in late 2029. The second phase, to a WBI Energy compressor station near Mapleton, North Dakota, targets late 2030. The FERC Section 7(c) application is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The company now estimates 2026 capital expenditures of $594 million, including $165 million for pipeline projects.

2026 guidance

MDU reaffirmed its 2026 EPS forecast of 93 cents to $1.00. The forecast assumes normal weather, economic and operating conditions for the rest of the year, continued customer growth and constructive regulatory outcomes.

The long-term EPS growth objective remains 6% to 8%.