NIQ shares fall 8.6% despite Q3 profit beat and raised forecast

NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ) reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 30 cents per share, topping the 24-cent consensus estimate, and raised its full-year 2026 guidance.

Shares fell 8.6% at 3:59 p.m. ET, from a $21.06 close.

Revenue rose 6.3% to $1.12 billion, in line with the $1.12 billion consensus estimate. Net income attributable to NIQ was positive for the first time since the company’s initial public offering, at $35.8 million, or 12 cents per share, against a loss of $198.6 million a year earlier.

Here's how the company did:

• Adjusted EPS: 30 cents vs. 3 cents a year earlier; 24 cents expected
• Revenue: $1.12 billion vs. $1.05 billion a year earlier; $1.12 billion expected
• Adjusted EBITDA: $263.6 million vs. $223.7 million a year earlier, up 17.8%
• Net income attributable to NIQ: $35.8 million, or 12 cents per share, vs. a loss of $198.6 million a year earlier

Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 230 basis points to 23.6%.

Segment results

Americas revenue rose 13.8% as reported, to $463.0 million, and 11.5% in organic constant currency.

EMEA revenue rose 1.4% to $491.2 million, with organic constant currency growth of 2.9%. EMEA results were affected by volatility in the Middle East.

APAC revenue rose 2.4% to $164.9 million, but organic constant currency growth was 0.2%. APAC was flat against a difficult year-over-year growth comparison.

2026 guidance

The company raised its full-year 2026 organic constant currency revenue growth forecast to 5.5% to 5.7%, from the 5.2% to 5.6% it gave on Aug. 10.

Adjusted EPS is now forecast at $1.16 to $1.20, up from $1.08 to $1.12. Levered free cash flow is forecast at $249 million to $257 million, from $245 million to $255 million.

The adjusted EBITDA margin forecast narrowed to 23.6% to 23.8%, from 23.5% to 23.9%. For the fourth quarter, the company expects adjusted EPS of 43 cents to 47 cents.

Cash and capital returns

Levered free cash flow was $181.2 million in the quarter and $132.1 million for the first nine months of 2026.

The net leverage ratio fell to 2.9x at Sept. 30, from 3.1x at June 30, reaching the company’s sub-3.0x target one quarter ahead of plan.

The board approved a repurchase program for up to $150.0 million of ordinary shares. Shares may be bought in open market purchases, including under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, or in privately negotiated transactions. The company is not obligated to repurchase any shares under the program.

Chief Financial Officer Mike Burwell said, “Deleveraging remains our top priority,” and that the authorization adds return of capital to a framework that also funds organic growth, AI investment and strategic M&A.