Matador shares fall 7.3% despite Q3 profit beat and higher forecast

Matador (MTDR) topped third-quarter 2026 profit estimates and raised its full-year production forecast, the company said in results released Nov. 3, and its shares fell 7.3% in regular trading as of 3:59 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, from a regular-session close of $54.31.

Adjusted earnings were $2.08 per diluted share, against the $1.94 consensus estimate. Revenue of $1.16 billion also topped the $1.13 billion consensus estimate.

Matador is an independent energy company focused on shale oil and natural gas in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. It also runs midstream operations through its affiliate San Mateo Midstream.

Here's how the company did:

• Adjusted EPS: $2.08 vs. $1.94 expected, and $1.36 a year earlier
• GAAP EPS: $1.39 vs. $1.42 a year earlier
• Revenue: $1.16 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected, and $939.0 million a year earlier
• Adjusted EBITDA: $738.3 million vs. $566.5 million a year earlier

Founder, Chairman and CEO Joseph Wm. Foran said: "The Company's third quarter results beat our expectations handily." He credited production growth and the acquisitions across the upstream and midstream businesses.

Net income has moved from a loss of $35.9 million in the first quarter of 2026 to a profit of $390.7 million in the second quarter, according to its SEC filings.

Production and spending

Production averaged 230,470 BOE per day in the third quarter, up 10% from 209,184 a year earlier and 3% above the 224,000 BOE per day guidance midpoint.

Natural gas revenue was $162 million in the third quarter, compared with negative $39 million in the second quarter. The company said the improvement was driven by higher gas realizations and the commissioning of the Hugh Brinson pipeline on Sept. 1.

Capital expenditures were $381 million, $91 million less than in the third quarter of 2025 and 10% below the $425 million guidance midpoint. The company said timing shifts drove the lower spending.

2026 guidance

Matador raised its full-year 2026 production forecast to 223,000 to 224,000 BOE per day, from 218,500 to 223,500 BOE per day in August.

The company now expects total capital expenditures of $1.67 billion to $1.73 billion, against $1.625 billion to $1.725 billion in August. Its midstream capital expenditure forecast rose to $170 million to $190 million, from $145 million to $165 million.

The company estimates fourth-quarter oil production of about 137,000 barrels per day, compared with 132,019 barrels per day in the third quarter. It also said it could deliver mid-single digit production growth or better in 2027.

Debt and dividend

Matador repaid $150 million of borrowings in October. Foran said the company had already repaid more than $150 million so far in the fourth quarter, which he called $50 million more than previously announced. The company had planned to repay $350 million to $400 million by the end of 2026.

The company now expects its leverage ratio to approach 1.5 times by year-end 2026.

The company also raised its annual dividend to $1.75 per share, a 17% increase from $1.50 per share. Foran said it was the eighth dividend increase in five years.

As of Nov. 1, Matador had closed and begun integrating all previously announced acquisitions, including the May 2026 federal lease sale, Paloma and Ridge Runner.