Molson Coors cuts 2026 profit forecast, Q3 sales fall 1.6%

Molson Coors (TAP) cut its 2026 underlying earnings forecast after third-quarter net sales fell 1.6% from a year earlier.

Shares were little changed at 10:04 a.m. ET, from a $43.14 close.

Underlying earnings per share of $1.46 were in line with the $1.47 consensus estimate.

Here's how the company did:

• Net sales: $2.93 billion vs. $2.97 billion a year earlier, below the $2.97 billion consensus estimate
• Underlying EPS: $1.46 vs. $1.67 a year earlier, in line with the $1.47 consensus estimate
• U.S. GAAP net income per diluted share: $1.45, against a loss of $14.79 a year earlier

Financial volume fell 3.0%, partly offset by a 1.8% gain from price and sales mix. Underlying income before income taxes fell 18.1% to $349.0 million.

Net income swung from a profit of $428.7 million in the second quarter of 2025 to a loss of $2.93 billion in the third quarter of 2025.

2026 guidance

The company now expects underlying earnings per share to decline 16% to 19% versus 2025, from a previous range of 11% to 15%.

It also expects underlying income before income taxes to fall 21% to 24% in constant currency, from a decline of 15% to 18%.

Net sales are now forecast to decline 1% to 2% in constant currency, from flat, plus or minus 1%.

Underlying free cash flow is forecast at $1.0 billion, plus or minus 10%, down from $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.

CFO Tracey Joubert said the pressures "are likely to remain a factor in the near term."

Costs and charges

Cost of goods sold per hectoliter rose 8.6% from a year earlier, driven by cost inflation in materials, logistics and manufacturing.

Midwest Premium pricing added about $30 million of unfavorable impact in the quarter. The company still expects the Midwest Premium impact to exceed the prior year by about $130 million for the full year, the same figure it gave on Aug. 6.

Marketing, general and administrative expenses fell 7.7%, mainly on lower marketing spending and lower employee-related costs from restructuring.

Restructuring actions in the Americas segment are expected to bring additional charges of $5 million to $10 million. In EMEA&APAC, the company anticipates $15 million to $20 million more, mostly in the rest of 2026 and in 2027.

Cash and capital returns

Underlying free cash flow reached $852.0 million for the nine months, up $69.9 million from a year earlier.

The company paid $254.9 million for share repurchases over the nine months, down from $332.8 million a year earlier. Dividends paid totaled $273.1 million, against $285.7 million.

Net debt to underlying EBITDA was 2.53 times, up from 2.28 times a year earlier.